Token Unlocks: Reading Vesting Cliffs Before They Hit the Market
Most tokens launch with the majority of their supply locked: allocations to the team, early investors and the treasury vest over years according to a public schedule. A token unlock is the moment a tranche of that supply becomes transferable. Unlike almost everything else in crypto, unlocks are known in advance to the day — which makes them one of the few genuinely schedulable supply events in any market.
Cliffs, linear vesting and what actually matters
Two patterns dominate. A cliff releases a large block at once — typically the first anniversary of a raise — and is the kind that moves markets. Linear vesting drips supply daily or monthly and is usually absorbed without a trace. The headline dollar value of an unlock is the least useful number; what matters is the unlock as a percentage of circulating float and who receives it. A 5% one-day float increase to early investors sitting on a 10x is real sell pressure; the same value vesting to a treasury multisig may never touch the market.
Empirically, the price effect is front-loaded. Because the date is public, sophisticated traders short or de-risk ahead of large cliffs, and studies of major unlocks consistently find the drawdown concentrating in the weeks before the event, with the unlock day itself often anticlimactic — occasionally even a relief rally once the overhang clears.
A practical checklist
For any position, know three things from the unlock calendar: the next cliff date, its size as a share of float, and the recipient category. Cross-check float impact against real liquidity — a 3% float unlock in a token that trades thin order books is heavier than 10% in a deep one. And watch funding rates into the event: deeply negative funding before a big unlock means the short trade is crowded and the post-unlock squeeze becomes the risk.
The CoinClass token unlock page tracks upcoming events with float-impact figures updated daily.