Bull Market Peak Signals
No single indicator calls a cycle top — but when many fire together, history says pay attention. Each signal below has a defined trigger threshold drawn from prior Bitcoin peaks.
Indicator Status
Value vs threshold · progress toward trigger
| Indicator | Category | Trigger Rule | Current | Threshold | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow Chart | cycle | Enter top-2 bands (Sell zone) | 0.1889 | 1 | 19% | SAFE |
| Pi Cycle Top | cycle | 111DMA ≥ 2×350DMA | 0.4218 | 1 | 42% | SAFE |
| Golden Ratio Multiplier | cycle | Price > 350DMA × 2 | 0.9665 | 2 | 48% | SAFE |
| Power Law Corridor | cycle | Price > corridor top (fit × 2.4) | 0.2354 | 1 | 24% | SAFE |
| Price / 4-Year MA | cycle | > 3× (diminishing-returns basis) | 1.223 | 3 | 41% | SAFE |
| Mayer Multiple | cycle | > 2.4 | 1.103 | 2.4 | 46% | SAFE |
| Price / 200W MA | cycle | > 4× | 1.189 | 4 | 30% | SAFE |
| AHR999x Top Escape | cycle | < 0.45 (escape zone) | 6.113 | 0.45 | 7% | SAFE |
| S2F Model Price | cycle | Price ≥ S2F model price | 0.0836 | 1 | 8% | SAFE |
| MVRV Z-Score | onchain | > 7 | 0.8941 | 7 | 13% | SAFE |
| MVRV Ratio | onchain | > 3.7 | 1.514 | 3.7 | 41% | SAFE |
| NUPL | onchain | > 0.75 (Euphoria) | 0.3393 | 0.75 | 45% | SAFE |
| Puell Multiple | onchain | > 4 | 1.001 | 4 | 25% | SAFE |
| Reserve Risk | onchain | > 0.02 | 0.0006 | 0.02 | 3% | SAFE |
| RHODL Ratio | onchain | > 90th pct (4y window) | 675.2 | 5,050 | 13% | SAFE |
| Terminal Price | onchain | Price ≥ Terminal Price | 0.7929 | 1 | 79% | SAFE |
| STH MVRV | onchain | > 2 | 1.08 | 2 | 54% | SAFE |
| LTH SOPR | onchain | > 4 | 1.395 | 4 | 35% | SAFE |
| VDD Multiple | onchain | > 2.9 | 0.6534 | 2.9 | 23% | SAFE |
| UTXOs in Profit % | onchain | > 95% | 78.12 | 95 | 82% | SAFE |
| CDD 30D Avg (4y pct) | onchain | > 95th pct (4y window) | 9,513,000 | 27,310,000 | 35% | SAFE |
| Price / CVDD (4y pct) | onchain | > 95th pct (4y window) | 5.604 | 11.57 | 48% | SAFE |
| BTC Avg Funding Rate | deriv | > 0.05%/8h (5× baseline) | 0.0074 | 0.05 | 15% | SAFE |
| BTC OI / Market Cap | deriv | > 6% (extreme leverage) | 2.915 | 6 | 49% | SAFE |
| BTC Options Put/Call OI | deriv | < 0.5 (call euphoria) | 0.5578 | 0.5 | 90% | SAFE |
| Coinbase Premium (7D avg) | deriv | > 0.1% (US FOMO) | -0.0158 | 0.1 | 0% | SAFE |
| Fear & Greed Index | sentiment | > 80 (Extreme Greed) | 63 | 80 | 79% | SAFE |
| Altcoin Season Index | sentiment | > 75 (Altseason) | 48 | 75 | 64% | SAFE |
| Bitcoin Dominance | sentiment | < 45% (late-cycle rotation) | 58.47 | 45 | 77% | SAFE |
| Stablecoin Supply 30D Growth | sentiment | < +2%/30d (dry powder stalls) | 1.313 | 2 | 152% | TRIGGERED |
These thresholds are fitted to past cycles — each new cycle rhymes rather than repeats, and several 2021-era signals never re-triggered. Use alongside AHR999, CBBI and the other cycle indicators rather than in isolation.
How to Use Peak Signals
At the 2017 and 2021 tops, a large majority of these indicators fired within weeks of the high. One or two triggers mean froth; a cluster means late-cycle risk management.
Progress shows how far the current value has traveled toward its trigger. Watching indicators accelerate from 60% to 90% is more useful than waiting for the binary flip.
Methodology & Sources
- Sources
- On-chain data, aggregated exchange market data and derived cycle indicators
- Coverage
- Bitcoin-centric cycle indicators spanning on-chain, market-structure and sentiment categories
- Formulas
- Each indicator is compared against a fixed trigger threshold calibrated to prior Bitcoin cycle tops; Progress is the current value's distance traveled toward its threshold and Status flips to TRIGGERED once the threshold is crossed. The headline is the count of triggered signals over the total tracked.
- Update frequency
- Recomputed roughly every 10 minutes; several underlying indicators update once per UTC day.
- Units & timezone
- All monetary values are USD. Timestamps and daily buckets use UTC. 24h windows are rolling unless stated otherwise.
- Anomaly handling
- Exchanges that stop reporting are dropped from aggregates rather than carried forward; obvious outliers (bad ticks, decimal errors) are filtered before aggregation.